Site‐Occupancy Distribution Modeling to Correct Population‐Trend Estimates Derived from Opportunistic Observations

Abstract: Species’ assessments must frequently be derived from opportunistic observations made by volunteers (i.e., citizen scientists). Interpretation of the resulting data to estimate population trends is plagued with problems, including teasing apart genuine population trends from variations in observation effort. We devised a way to correct for annual variation in effort when estimating trends in occupancy (species distribution) from faunal or floral databases of opportunistic observations. First, for all surveyed sites, detection histories (i.e., strings of detection–nondetection records) are generated. Within‐season replicate surveys provide information on the detectability of an occupied site. Detectability directly represents observation effort; hence, estimating detectablity means correcting for observation effort. Second, site‐occupancy models are applied directly to the detection‐history data set (i.e., without aggregation by site and year) to estimate detectability and species distribution (occupancy, i.e., the true proportion of sites where a species occurs). Site‐occupancy models also provide unbiased estimators of components of distributional change (i.e., colonization and extinction rates). We illustrate our method with data from a large citizen‐science project in Switzerland in which field ornithologists record opportunistic observations. We analyzed data collected on four species: the widespread Kingfisher (Alcedo atthis) and Sparrowhawk (Accipiter nisus) and the scarce Rock Thrush (Monticola saxatilis) and Wallcreeper (Tichodroma muraria). Our method requires that all observed species are recorded. Detectability was <1 and varied over the years. Simulations suggested some robustness, but we advocate recording complete species lists (checklists), rather than recording individual records of single species. The representation of observation effort with its effect on detectability provides a solution to the problem of differences in effort encountered when extracting trend information from haphazard observations. We expect our method is widely applicable for global biodiversity monitoring and modeling of species distributions.     

Effects of Climate Change,Invasive Species,and Disease on the Distribution of Native European Crayfishes

Climate change will require species to adapt to new conditions or follow preferred climates to higher latitudes or elevations, but many dispersal‐limited freshwater species may be unable to move due to barriers imposed by watershed boundaries. In addition, invasive nonnative species may expand into new regions under future climate conditions and contribute to the decline of native species. We evaluated future distributions for the threatened European crayfish fauna in response to climate change, watershed boundaries, and the spread of invasive crayfishes, which transmit the crayfish plague, a lethal disease for native European crayfishes. We used climate projections from general circulation models and statistical models based on Mahalanobis distance to predict climate‐suitable regions for native and invasive crayfishes in the middle and at the end of the 21st century. We identified these suitable regions as accessible or inaccessible on the basis of major watershed boundaries and present occurrences and evaluated potential future overlap with 3 invasive North American crayfishes. Climate‐suitable areas decreased for native crayfishes by 19% to 72%, and the majority of future suitable areas for most of these species were inaccessible relative to native and current distributions. Overlap with invasive crayfish plague‐transmitting species was predicted to increase. Some native crayfish species (e.g., noble crayfish [Astacus astacus]) had no future refugia that were unsuitable for the modeled nonnative species. Our results emphasize the importance of preventing additional introductions and spread of invasive crayfishes in Europe to minimize interactions between the multiple stressors of climate change and invasive species, while suggesting candidate regions for the debatable management option of assisted colonization. Efectos del Cambio Climático, Especies Invasoras y Enfermedades sobre la Distribución de Cangrejos de Río Europeos Nativos     

Using Cost‐Effective Targeting to Enhance the Efficiency of Conservation Investments in Payments for Ecosystem Services

Abstract: Ecosystem services are being protected and restored worldwide through payments for ecosystem services in which participants are paid to alter their land‐management approaches to benefit the environment. The efficiency of such investments depends on the design of the payment scheme. Land features have been used to measure the environmental benefits of and amount of payment for land enrollment in payment for ecosystem services schemes. Household characteristics of program participants, however, may also be important in the targeting of land for enrollment. We used the characteristics of households participating in China's Grain‐to‐Green program, and features of enrolled land to examine the targeting of land enrollment in that program in Wolong Nature Reserve. We compared levels of environmental benefits that can be obtained through cost‐effective targeting of land enrollment for different types of benefits under different payment schemes. The efficiency of investments in a discriminative payment scheme (payments differ according to opportunity costs, i.e., landholders’ costs of forgoing alternative uses of land) was substantially higher than in a flat payment scheme (same price paid to all participants). Both optimal targeting and suboptimal targeting of land enrollment for environmental benefits achieved substantially more environmental benefits than random selection of land for enrollment. Our results suggest that cost‐effective targeting of land through the use of discriminative conservation payments can substantially improve the efficiency of investments in the Grain‐to‐Green program and other payment for ecosystem services programs.     

Ability of Matrix Models to Explain the Past and Predict the Future of Plant Populations

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage‐based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts’ 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data‐collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk‐averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models. Habilidad de los Modelos Matriciales para Explicar el Pasado y Predecir el Futuro de las Poblaciones de Plantas     

Persistent Unequal Sex Ratio in a Population of Grayling (Salmonidae) and Possible Role of Temperature Increase

In some fishes, water chemistry or temperature affects sex determination or creates sex‐specific selection pressures. The resulting population sex ratios are hard to predict from laboratory studies if the environmental triggers interact with other factors, whereas in field studies, singular observations of unusual sex ratios may be particularly prone to selective reporting. Long‐term monitoring largely avoids these problems. We studied a population of grayling (Thymallus thymallus) in Lake Thun, Switzerland, that has been monitored since 1948. Samples of spawning fish have been caught about 3 times/week around spawning season, and water temperature at the spawning site has been continuously recorded since 1970. We used scale samples collected in different years to determine the average age of spawners (for life‐stage specific analyses) and to identify the cohort born in 2003 (an extraordinarily warm year). Recent tissue samples were genotyped on microsatellite markers to test for genetic bottlenecks in the past and to estimate the genetically effective population size (N_e). Operational sex ratios changed from approximately 65% males before 1993 to approximately 85% males from 1993 to 2011. Sex ratios correlated with the water temperatures the fish experienced in their first year of life. Sex ratios were best explained by the average temperature juvenile fish experienced during their first summer. Grayling abundance is declining, but we found no evidence of a strong genetic bottleneck that would explain the apparent lack of evolutionary response to the unequal sex ratio. Results of other studies show no evidence of endocrine disruptors in the study area. Our findings suggest temperature affects population sex ratio and thereby contributes to population decline. Persistencia de Proporción de Sexos Desigual en una Población de Tímalos (Salmonidae) y el Posible Papel del Incremento de la Temperatura     

Use of Stress‐Hormone Levels and Habitat Selection to Assess Functional Connectivity of a Landscape for an Amphibian

Abstract: The influence of landscape matrix on functional connectivity has been clearly established. Now methods to assess the effects of different land uses on species’ movements are needed because current methods are often biased. The use of physiological parameters as indicators of the level of resistance to animal movement associated with different land uses (i.e., matrix resistance) could provide estimates of energetic costs and risks to animals migrating through the matrix. To assess whether corticosterone levels indicate matrix resistance, we conducted experiments on substrate choice and measured levels of corticosterone before and after exposure of toads (Bufo bufo) to 3 common substrates (ploughed soil, meadow, and forest litter). We expected matrix resistance and hormone levels to increase from forest litter (habitat of the toad) to meadows to ploughed soil. Adult toads had higher corticosterone levels on ploughed soil than on forest litter or meadow substrates. Hormone levels did not differ between forest litter and meadow. Toads avoided moving onto ploughed soil. Corticosterone levels in juvenile toads were not related to substrate type; however, hormone levels decreased as humidity increased. Juveniles, unlike adults, did not avoid moving over ploughed soil. The difference in responses between adult and juvenile toads may have been due to differences in experimental design (for juveniles, entire body used to measure corticosterone concentration; for adults, saliva alone); differences in the scale of sensory perception of the substrate (juveniles are much smaller than adults); or differences in cognitive processes between adult and juvenile toads. Adults probably had experience with different substrate types, whereas juveniles first emerging from the water probably did not. As a consequence, arable lands could act as ecological traps for juvenile toads.     

From Adaptive Management to Adjustive Management: A Pragmatic Account of Biodiversity Values

Abstract: The conservation of biodiversity poses an exceptionally difficult problem in that it needs to be effective in a context of double uncertainty: scientific (i.e., how to conserve biodiversity) and normative (i.e., which biodiversity to conserve and why). Although adaptive management offers a promising approach to overcome scientific uncertainty, normative uncertainty is seldom tackled by conservation science. We expanded on the approach proposed by adaptive‐management theorists by devising an integrative and iterative approach to conservation that encompasses both types of uncertainty. Inspired by environmental pragmatism, we suggest that moral values at stake in biodiversity conservation are plastic and that a plurality of individual normative positions can coexist and evolve. Moral values should thus be explored through an experimental process as additional parameters to be incorporated in the traditional adaptive‐management approach. As such, moral values should also be monitored by environmental ethicists working side by side with scientists and managers on conservation projects. Acknowledging the diversity of moral values and integrating them in a process of collective deliberation will help overcome the normative uncertainty. We used Dewey's distinction between adaptation and adjustment to offer a new paradigm built around what we call adjustive management, which reflects both the uncertainty and the likely evolution of the moral values humans attribute to biodiversity. We illustrate how this paradigm relates to practical conservation decisions by exploring the case of the Sacred Ibis (Threskiornis aethiopicus), an alien species in France that is the target of an eradication plan undertaken with little regard for moral issues. We propose that a more satisfying result of efforts to control Sacred Ibis could have been reached by rerouting the traditional feedback loop of adaptive management to include a normative inquiry. This adjustive management approach now needs to be tested in real‐case conservation programs.     

Selenium and nano-selenium in plant nutrition

Selenium (Se) is a naturally occurring metalloid element which occurs nearly in all environments. Se is considered as a finite and non-renewable resource on the Earth. The common sources of Se in earth’s crust occur in association with sulfide minerals such as metal selenide, whereas it is rarely found in elemental form (Se⁰). While there is no evidence of Se need for higher plants, several reports show that when Se added at low concentrations, Se exerts beneficial effects on plant growth. Se may act as quasi-essential micronutrient through altering different physiological and biochemical traits. Thus, plants vary considerably in their physiological and biochemical response to Se. This review focusses on the physiological importance of Se forms as well as different Se fertilizers for higher plants, especially plant growth, uptake, transport, and metabolism.     

Importance of Accounting for Detection Heterogeneity When Estimating Abundance: the Case of French Wolves

Abstract: Assessing conservation strategies requires reliable estimates of abundance. Because detecting all individuals is most often impossible in free‐ranging populations, estimation procedures have to account for a <1 detection probability. Capture–recapture methods allow biologists to cope with this issue of detectability. Nevertheless, capture–recapture models for open populations are built on the assumption that all individuals share the same detection probability, although detection heterogeneity among individuals has led to underestimating abundance of closed populations. We developed multievent capture–recapture models for an open population and proposed an associated estimator of population size that both account for individual detection heterogeneity (IDH). We considered a two‐class mixture model with weakly and highly detectable individuals to account for IDH. In a noninvasive capture–recapture study of wolves we based on genotypes identified in feces and hairs, we found a large underestimation of population size (27% on average) occurred when IDH was ignored.     

Residential Water Consumption,Motivation for Conserving Water and the Continuing Tragedy of the Commons

This paper explores the effect of the perception of externalities (PE) on residential water consumption. Externalities occur when individuals make decisions that harm others, without concern for the impact or feeling a need to compensate for the harm. The aim of this study was to investigate whether PE affects people's motivation to conserve water, and, consequently, the practice of residential water consumption. Two hundred eighty Mexican citizens responded to a questionnaire investigating how they perceived that other individuals in their community wasted water. Respondents were also asked about their motives to conserve water, and direct observations of individual water consumption were recorded. Results were processed within a structural equations model, which revealed that motives to conserve water significantly inhibit water consumption. Since the perception of externalities also inhibits conservation motives, the resulting effect of PE on water consumption is positive. This result means that the more people perceive that others waste water, the less their conservation motives, and, therefore, the more their own water consumption.